Bayesian belief networks for the analysis of the controversial role of hydropower development in the antagonistic agrofood-fisheries nexus: A potential approach supporting sustainable development in the Guayas river basin (Ecuador)

Increasing anthropogenic activities are affecting water quality and related ecosystem services in river basins worldwide. There is a need to identify act on synergies between the water-energy-food (WEF) elements other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while mediating trade-offs. The Guayas basin (GRB), one of major watersheds Ecuador, being affected by increasing urbanization, agricultural industrial activities. In this perspective paper, we indicate WEF interactions GRB linked SDGs. A challenge geographical distance pressures impacts, for which environmental governance key support needed change towards sustainable development. particular, realization measures reduce pollutant input upstream systems will both legislative financial means solve downstream problems. Bayesian belief network (BBN) framework was developed order decision making GRB. discussed concepts can be applied worldwide since, many basins, very similar food production challenges addressed.